Monday, 09 Feb, 2009 Health & Fitness
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The Most Popular Causes of Death In 2030

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At the end of 2008, a list with a prognostic of the most "popular" causes of mortality in the year 2030 was published by the World Health Organization. Nowadays, these are: tumors, ischemic disease of heart and disturbances of the cerebral blood circulation.

According to this list, the 3 causes will still keep their positions in future; more than that, the frequency of these diseases will increase. Other frequent causes of mortality today are infarctions and heart attacks in an older age. Besides, in such cases, the patient's life often depends on the extreme measures taken in the first minutes or hours, which is a problem for doctors both in big cities, and in villages, because of the distance that may separate them. By 2030 the situation is less likely to change.

The number of deaths in car accidents will also increase. It isn't surprising since the number of cars is in a continuous growth and, in the history of humanity, technical development has always outrun culture evolution.

A social cause, which may increase the mortality in rich countries, is the refusal of some people from prophylactic vaccination. There already exists a set of epidemics of diseases as a consequence. The first one took place in Stockholm between 1873 and 1874. Similar events took place in Great Britain in the 1970s and in Netherlands, Ireland, Nigeria and USA in 2000.

According to the same prognostic, the mortality from acute respiratory diseases, tuberculosis, malaria and delivery mortality will decrease. AIDS, as a cause of death, will be very spread till 2015 but the the level of mortality will decrease. It seems that the authors of this prognosis consider the creation of an effective vaccine against this virus in the nearest future. Today, this is complicated because of the rapid genetic modifications of the virus.

This document created by specialists from the World Health Organization isn't the only trial to predict the future of medicine. The famous astrophysician Steven Hoking has predicted in 1998 that in the nearest future there will be an era of planned evolution, linked with discoveries in genetic engineering. Hoking considered that people would be able to live up to 120 years. At the same time, along with genetic technologies' development, there will also appear new viruses dangerous for humanity.

Some of the prognostics are shocking. The professor of the University of Oxford Brian Sux affirms that, as a consequence of the continuous accumulation of defects in the Y-chromosome, which plays the role of decision of the male sex, this chromosome will finally disappear, and, along with it, men will disappear too. This hypothesis is confirmed by the fact that, over the last 50 years, the quantity of formed spermatozoa has decreased with 20 per cent. According to Sux, this will happen in 125,000 years.

According to Arthur Clark, another "fantasy" scientist, in 1980's artificial organisms had to be created, by 2010 humans would reach the control over heredity, by 2030 rational animals would appear and by 2090 humans would reach immortality. His biological prognostics still remain just interesting, curious facts.

In 1999 Clark had elaborated a new version of his prognostics. This time he affirmed that by 2005 humanity will be able to "replace nose, eyes and skin with artificial and more effective organs". Human cloning, according to Clark, should have taken place in 2004.

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